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[Beau] Hi, my name is Beau and this is Tom

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and we did an economic base analysis

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of Virginia in 2012 and 2017.

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A research question was what sectors of

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Virginia's employment industries have

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the largest impact on their economy.

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So we were interested in seeing the

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value of certain industries and how that

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affects county level economy as well

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as state level economy in Virginia.

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The way we did this was by using

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economic base analysis.

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This uses basic and non basic jobs to

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define all industries or all workers.

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A basic job is one that brings

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in non basic jobs.

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So it could be a public administration

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position and by them working

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it would bring in other jobs

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such as janitors or waiters and waitresses-

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and it's important to economic base analysis

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how the wealth circulates

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through the local economy.

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So why we picked Virginia?

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We were interested in seeing

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how a state with such a diverse

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industry base uses - or

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how economic base analysis can

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show the importance of that.

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So Virginia is really interesting;

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It has a lot of public administration

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jobs in north because of all

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the government employees and

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then to the south and west

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it's more agricultural based.

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So this diversification makes

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it a really good example for.

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economic base analysis.

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The existing literature for

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Andrews he explained how there

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are basic and non basic jobs.

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As I said earlier,

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basic jobs really important because

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they bring in non basic jobs.

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The next source that we had

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Shows that increase in basic

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jobs in a region leads to more

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non-basic jobs in that region,

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meaning that if one person gets hired,

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as I said earlier in a basic industry,

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they can allow for wealth to

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spread and be re-spent through other

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industries that are non-basic.

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Lee explained why basic employment

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is crucial to the economy.

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This is because

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employment is a result of external

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demand for goods and services,

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and this external demand creates

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the basic and non-basic jobs of

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industry of of of the economy

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and can put one industry on top

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of the other and explain how you

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should invest or how policy makers

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of the state can invest in order

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to enhance certain industries.

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So for our employment sectors,

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there are 13 different industries,

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Agriculture, Construction,

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Manufacturing, Wholesale trade,

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Retail Trade, Transportation,

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Information, Finance,

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Professional/Science, Education, Arts,

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Public administration, and Other, which

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are non-public administration jobs.

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On top of those, we also included

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Social Security, because as I said

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the wealth that comes into the economy

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and how it's respent is really important.

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So Social Security can play a large

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role in that because it explains wealth

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coming into the economy that isn't a

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result of a basic or non-basic job.

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[Tom] So as Beau outlined, these are the

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industries that we're looking at,

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and so for this.

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Economic base analysis.

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we're looking at basic

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employment in 2012 and 2017,

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and we're using data for sorry,

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we're looking at non-basic

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employment for 2012 and 2017,

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and therefore it's important for us to look

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at the basic employment in the years before.

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This is because if a) you know,

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using the example that Bo had of a person

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gets hired into a public administration job

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their job allows, for example,

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another worker to be hired at

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a local movie theater that that

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public administrator goes to,

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or another grocer to be hired

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at the local grocery store.

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So it's important to look at basic

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employment from the year before,

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because there would be some kind of

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delayed effect that the basic job in 2011

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would have on non basic employment in 2012.

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So this is just a graph of

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the net change in all,

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in employment for all of those industries,

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and we see that the greatest

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change in industries comes from

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professional and scientific jobs,

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education, and jobs in the arts.

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And of course,

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the biggest change is Social Security

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recipients, which makes sense.

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Virginia is a state that,

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like the nation,

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is aging and therefore more

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people in Virginia are qualifying

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for Social Security payments.

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In addition,

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Virginia tends to be a wealthier state,

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so people can, people have worked in

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Virginia and want to retire there.

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So when conducting economic base analysis,

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there is a two step process.

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The first is to identify

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which of the previous

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industry sectors are basic and non-

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basic and the way that we do this

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is we compare the concentration of

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Employees in a certain industry

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in the state and we compare it

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to some benchmarks in this case.

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And the logic here is that if public

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administration officials make up a higher

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percentage of the Virginia workforce,

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there's an outsized demand in Virginia

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for public administration jobs when

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compared to the nation as a whole.

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Using public administration is just a

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really good example because as Beau outlined,

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not only does Virginia have its usual

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public administration from schools,

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local government, state government,

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things like that,

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Virginia also is in very close

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proximity to Washington DC,

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so there's a very large amount of

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federal government workers who would

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qualify as public administrators.

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So we use a location quotient to

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identify where the basic or which

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of the industries are basic or not.

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So since it's a quotient,

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you're dividing and so to determine

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which industries have a higher

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concentration of workers in Virginia

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when you're dividing the concentration

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in Virginia by the concentration at the

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National level you're looking for location

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quotients that are greater than one,

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which would indicate.

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More.

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So for 2011 basic employment,

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there were eight different

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industries that qualified as,

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excuse me, basic employment.

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Those were construction,

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retail information, finance,

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professional scientific jobs,

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education, other and other sorry

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other non public administration jobs

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and public administration. And then

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we see from 2016 that there were

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only four but this time interestingly

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the Social Security recipients acted as a

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As a basic industry, so there were more

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Social Security recipients in Virginia

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as a percentage of Virginia's labor

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force than there were in the nation.

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[Beau] So here on this screen

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is our empirical model.

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All the industries that are on the

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screen right now were basic and as you

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can see we were studying 2012 and 2017.

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However, we had to lag those years and

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look at the previous years in order to see

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the full effect of basic employment in 2011,

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you would have to see what

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happens in 2012, and the same goes for 2017.

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We used ordinary least squares method

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in order to estimate these equations,

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and as you can see in

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the 2017 equation,

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Social Security recipients was also

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included because it was

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determined to be a basic job per say

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because of how higher valued it was

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to the national level.

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[Tom] So when we're looking at

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2012 non-basic employment,

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this is our regression results.

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So we're looking for,

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we're running all of the.

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industries that were

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considered basic by a location

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quotient in 2011 and we're using

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them as independent variables to

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calculate the change in non-basic

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employment from 2011 to 2012.

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And so we had 132 or a sample size

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of 132 and that is just a we're

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doing a cross sectional analysis

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of all of the independent cities in

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Virginia and counties in Virginia.

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So there are 132 total localities

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of those that we were able to

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use as cross sectional data.

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We see that the R-squared

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value is pretty high-

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it's .993-

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so theoretically the model explains 99.3%

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of the variation in non-basic employment,

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which is good.

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And identifying which of these

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basic industries are significant

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at a 95% confidence level?

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We're looking for P values that

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are less than or equal 2.05,

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so we see that six of our identified

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basic industries do meet that threshold,

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and so those are construction,

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retail trade, finance, education,

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other non public administration jobs,

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and public administration. However.

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something that is interesting to note

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is that according to economic base theory,

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a basic job provides wealth

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for other, non-basic jobs.

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And so we would

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expect the coefficients

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for basic jobs to be positive.

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However, as you can see here,

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construction,

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finance, and Public Administration

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all are negative,

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all have negative coefficients.

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And so to explain this,

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there are a couple of couple

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of things that we can consider.

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The most obvious one is that since

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we're taking basic employment

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from 2011 and looking at non-

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basic employment in 2012,

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it could take shorter or longer for

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those non basic jobs to be added,

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in which case they would not be

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reflected in this regression.

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So, for example,

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if a public administrator is

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hired in February of 2011 and the

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local grocery store to keep up

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with this public administrators,

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To keep up with those public administrators,

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groceries hires another grocer in

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June that wouldn't be reflected here,

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so that's probably the easiest

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way to explain why some of these

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coefficients are negative.

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Moving on to 2017, we're of course

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including Social Security recipients,

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which has an incredibly low P value,

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so it's incredibly significant. In public

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administration also remains significant.

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However, a couple of things that we

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notice here is that this regression

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only explains about 40% of the total

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variation in non-basic employment,

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which is obviously not as accurate

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as the 2012 models and the probable

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cause for this is the incredible

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significance of Social Security recipients.

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If you recall the chart,

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a couple of slides ago

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Social Security recipients has outgrown

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growth in any other employment industry

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in Virginia by a very significant amount,

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so therefore it can kind of dominate

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the rest of the data and skew it so

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that it's less accurate in predicting

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the variation in non-basic employment.

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So in conclusion, we are able to say that

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Social Security recipients have become

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increasingly important to Virginia's

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economics as the population ages,

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the economy is much more reliant on

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people who are receiving Social Security

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payments than it has been previously.

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Public administration is probably,

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to no one surprise,

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still a dominant sector of

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Virginia's economic base.

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It remained significant and

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identifiable by a location quotient

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In both 2011 and 2016.

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And then also Virginia's

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economic base is becoming less diverse.

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In 2011, we were able to identify eight

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different sectors that counted as

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part of the economic base of Virginia,

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and a further six that achieved

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statistical significance at a

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95% confidence interval. In 2016,

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that number had dropped to four

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identified by a location quotient,

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and only two that met our level

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of significance.

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And then these are our data sources and

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references, our literature and the

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Census Bureau and other data that we

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have used during this presentation.

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We hope that you all have learned

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something very interesting about

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economic base analysis and its

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practicality and what policy makers

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can use it for to make decisions.

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So thank you for listening to us.