Date of Award

Spring 4-27-2018

Document Type

Honors Project

Degree Name

Bachelor of Science



Department Chair or Program Director

Helmstutler, Randall

First Advisor

Denhere, Melody

Second Advisor

Hydorn, Debra

Third Advisor

Esunge, Julius N.

Major or Concentration



This paper concerns forecasting the performance of the S/V Zodiac, a two-masted schooner operating as a public and private charter vessel out of Bellingham, Washington. Two aspects of performance are discussed, namely the business cycle of the Zodiac and the operating efficiency of the Zodiac. For the business cycle, it is found that the best model for the business cycle is the one-year-ahead plan developed for the vessel in or around November each year. As for the operating efficiency, an original model is developed from techniques used for forecasting power outputs of wind farms and individual wind turbines. This model uses probabilistic methods to generate a weekly “efficiency measure” of the S/V Zodiac that may be used comparatively.

Included in

Mathematics Commons