Date of Award
Spring 4-23-2025
Document Type
Honors Project
Degree Name
Bachelor of Arts
Department
Political Science and International Affairs
Department Chair or Program Director
Cooperman, Rosalyn
First Advisor
McDonald, Jared
Second Advisor
Farnsworth, Stephen
Major or Concentration
Political Science
Abstract
As displayed by Ralph Nader in 2000, non-major party candidates can play a decisive role in presidential elections without emerging victorious. Throughout U.S. history, several third-party and independent candidates have garnered notable support, typically among voters who self-identify as independent of partisanship. However, most Independents, particularly leaning Independents, ultimately vote for one of the two major political parties. This research utilizes external efficacy--an individual’s perceptions about the responsiveness of government officials and institutions to citizen demands--as a predictor for voting behavior and partisan identification. In theory, citizens with low external efficacy are more likely to possess frustration with the two major parties and less likely to view non-major party votes as wasted, increasing their likelihood of supporting such candidates. Mediational analyses of American National Election Survey cross-sectional probability samples and a Lucid Theorem convenience sample distributed prior to the 2024 election demonstrate that lower external efficacy predicts a greater likelihood of voting for non-major party candidates, partially mediated by independent identification. This mediated effect appears significantly stronger in the pre-election survey data, suggesting many disillusioned citizens ultimately revert to major party voting despite earlier intentions. The results, all statistically significant, display external efficacy is an important aspect of electoral behavior, independence is not entirely ideological, and third-party candidates should depict the government as unresponsive to the demands of the people in order to generate more support.
Recommended Citation
(Jordy) Santana, Joren, "How External Efficacy Influences Support for Third-Party and Independent Candidates: A Mediational Analysis" (2025). Departmental Honors & Graduate Capstone Projects. 651.
https://scholar.umw.edu/student_research/651